The US fourth quarter economic growth has slowed down European production activities atrophy

The US fourth quarter economic growth has slowed down European production activities atrophy

  The American European economy is experiencing recovery slowdown.

The data released on the 28th showed that the US domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by 4% year-on-year, which slowed significantly higher than the growth in the previous quarter.The Fed Chairman Powell, warned on the 27th that the US economy is still struggling in the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, and there is still a long way to go in a comprehensive recovery.

  The Federal Reserve maintains a loose monetary policy The US Federal Reserve Board ends for two-day monetary policy meetings, announced that the Federal Fund Interest Rate Target Interval is between 0 to%, which is in line with the market universal expectations.The Fed said in the statement issued on the same day. In the past few months, the pace of US economic activities and employment recovery has slowed down, especially the most severe sectors of the epidemic impact.At the same time, demand weakness and early oil prices have inhibited consumer prices.The overall financial situation is still loose.

This is stark contrast to the Fed’s report results in December 20020, and the Fed considers the US economy is "continuous recovery." The Fed added a new expression "including the progress of vaccination", which believes that economic development will depends to a large extent on the results of the epidemic prevention and control.

This is the Fed’s first time to mention the concerns of recovery pace and vaccination progress in the statement.

  The "Recent", "Nearly" wording is removed, and the previous statement indicates that the epidemic situation in "recent" to constitute a pressure in the economy. In the "medium", the economic constituent risk, this direct change "" The current public health crisis will continue to Economic activities, employment and inflation have caused pressure and constitute a considerable risk of economic prospects. "

  Analysis said that this may indicate that the Fed official does not know how this uncertainty will last.

  The Fed Chairman Powell pointed out of the economic toughness at the press conference, including housing, financial services and other industries adopted new technologies and strategies to adapt to new coronal pneumonia epidemic. But before the crisis mitigation, a large part of the labor may still be in unemployment. Powell said that if people cannot return to work in time due to the epidemic, the economy cannot completely recover. The Fed said that it will continue to purchase $ 80 billion in government bonds and $ 40 billion in housing mortgage support securities, and reiterate the commitment to continue to purchase assets until the US economy has substantive progress, before price stability and full employment goals Continue to maintain a highly loose monetary policy. Under the epidemic, the US economy still faces huge pressure.

The data released by the US Department of Commerce on the 27th shows that the amount of durable items in December 2020 increased by%, significantly lower than the market expectation and 1 month.

  The United States has increased in GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year, and the annual GDP growth rate is -%, and the annual GDP growth is 74 years.

  Analysis believes that in December last year, US consumer purchasing power has declined significantly, and the number of non-agricultural new employment has been transferred to a negative value since April, and the retail sales data declines monthly, indicating that the weakness of the employment market may have weakened consumers. Purchase power, the personal consumption expenditure rate increased in the previous quarter, far below 41% of the previous value. Yushan Securities and Economist Lewis Alexander believes that the fourth quarter GDP report highlights the US economy continued to recover, but entered the 2021 reviscation will face significant decline. The Eurozone resuscitation process delayed the European Central Bank President Lagad recently expressed the economic data of the World Economic Forum "Davos Agenda", from the fourth quarter of the economy, the euro zone economic recovery process has been delayed.

The epidemic continued to affect the production and non-production sector in the euro zone, and the research and development expenditure of enterprises was also declined by the influence of the epidemic.

  The epidemic has made a positive impact on economic transformation and has also brought challenges.

On the one hand, digital, remote office, etc.

  The European Economic Railway Head Germany has been affected by more stringent epidemic restrictions, which is lowered this year’s economic growth expectation to increase in growth in September last year.

  The German Federal Economic and Energy Department announced the annual economic report, and the economy is expected to return to the epidemic in 2022. German Federal Economics and Energy Secretary Peter Altemir said in a statement on the day that the German economy will continue to grow in 2021, but "moving energy will be weakened", and the development of various industries will appear "differentiated pictures", and the industry is currently maintained. Strong, but the service industry will be significantly affected by the restriction measures.

  The report released by German market research institutions on the 27th shows that the first index of German consumer confidence in February is negative, down the final value of the final value after adjustment in Jan. Jievai expert Rualf Bilcr said that the German consumption environment will face difficulties in the first quarter of this year, only the number of new infections in the epidemic has declined significantly, so that prevention and control measures can be relaxed, and consumer confidence can recover.

  Analysis, IHSMARKIT 22, the acquisition of the adult adult PMI has shown that the extent to which the German economy is weak, and the integrated PMI has dropped to the point in January. It is the only country located in the 50-day rail line in Europe. .

The entire Eurozone’s comprehensive PMI in January is only, and the technical decline is difficult to avoid.

  The European Central Bank hinted or further cut interest rates, the Dutch central bank leader, the European Central Bank of the Central Bank Management Committee, said that the epidemic crisis can not evolve into a financial crisis, in order to make the inflation targets are not derailed, the European Central Bank has not touched the interest rate limit, it is possible It will consider further down-regulation that has been negative. If the financial situation is deteriorated due to market pressure, the European Central Bank will take action. Nord said that the European Central Bank is monitoring the continuous energy euro.

If necessary, the European Central Bank has tools to deal with the appreciation of the Euro, and the European Central Bank is also a comprehensive consideration of financing. If the Euro threatens the foreground of inflation, it will become the primary task of the European Central Bank to solve.

  The European Central Bank officials believe that the market underestimates the possibility of interest rate cut.

  The European Central Bank held monetary policy meetings on the 21st, decided to continue to implement asset purchase programs, oriented long-term refinancing operations, etc.

After the interest rate resolution 21, the European Central Bank President Lagard said at the press conference. If necessary, the European Central Bank is prepared to adjust all policy tools, nothing is impossible. "In this, some market people interpret it, P. Made in warning, if investors do not stop pushing up the euro action, the European central bank may even down.

(Editor: Li Yilin (intern), Li Dong) Share let more people see the recommended reading.